The BBWAA voting results for the Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2022 will be revealed on Tuesday evening. Much of the intrigue of this vote will revolve around the luck of Scott Rolen succeeding, the gains made by several players (especially Todd Helton), and how Alex Rodríguez and Carlos Beltrán fared.
The. The rules: A player can be put on the ballot after five years of retirement. Players who obtain at least 75% of the ballots returned by qualified BBWAA voters advance to the Hall of Fame. Those who drop below five percent fall on the ballot. Those between 5 and 75% can stay on the ballot for up to 10 years. BBWAA members who have been active and in good standing for at least 10 years can vote for zero to 10 players each year.
Regardless of what happens in the BBWAA vote, there’s already a new Hall of Famer in the Class of 2023: Fred McGriff. He did it through the.
Here are the details for Tuesday’s selection show:
Announcement of the Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2023
- Time: 6 p.m. ET | Date: Tuesday, January 24
- TV channel: MLB Network (coverage begins at 4 p.m. ET and lasts four hours)
- Direct: fuboTV (try for free)
Below are six scenarios to watch for when the vote totals come out on Tuesday night. NOTE: When I say “survey”, I’m talking about Ryan Thibodaux’s poll tracker (not really a poll but more of a collection of ballots, but that’s the easiest way to put it succinctly).
1. Is it Rolen’s year?
Scott Rolen’s rise in the vote has a “when, not if” feel. It’s actually more than feeling. Last month,to show that Rolen is extremely likely to enter.
However, it still matters whether it’s this year, next year or the year after. First of all, from a human perspective, Rolen is surely thrilled to come in and if he just misses the cut, that’s another year of waiting. In terms of voting in the Hall of Fame, it’s a spot on the ballot and clearing them helps all other legitimate candidates. Keep in mind that voters only have a maximum of 10 spots on their ballot, and some voters in the small room artificially limit themselves beyond that. More succinctly, the sooner Rolen drops out of the ballot, the easier it is for all other players to make gains – including next year’s newcomers like Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer and Chase Utley.
Polls show Rolen has a good chance of hitting the necessary 75%, but he seems to have a pretty decent chance of barely falling short. He voted 71% last year and the actual vote showed him at 63.2%. Currently, he sits at 79.2% in the polls and if there is a similar deficit in the private polls, he will be only a few percent away from doing so.
Like I said, it’s gonna be close. This is where most of the drama unfolds for Tuesday night’s vote.
2. Still low numbers for A-Rod?
A rod. We already know that. I firmly believe this is a huge year in the ballot for A-Rod. If he makes big wins, there is a chance he will make the Hall later. If he doesn’t, he risks ending up in Bonds Land. .
The current numbers don’t bode well for A-Rod. Polls show he won just two votes from last year (when he was 161 votes from entrenchment). It’s always possible that there is a cache of non-public votes for A-Rod, but there were none last year. Right now, it looks like he will be below 40% and if so, it’s hard to see him catching up enough ground to hit 75%.
3. How does the sign-stealing scandal affect Beltrán?
We have been able to get a general idea of how actors connected to developing countries would be treated, in general, with the electorate for years. In Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, we have two all-time greats who never tested positive while there were tests, but were strongly connected. In Rafael Palmeiro and Manny Ramirez, we’ve had players who posted Hall of Fame offensive numbers but tested positive. In A-Rod, well, you know.
However, we don’t have a good comparison with that voting body in Beltrán, and that might provide a roadmap of how things will play out for Jose Altuve and others down the road. Here is.
Polls show him about 15% above A-Rod at 55.7 to 40.4, so that’s probably a good sign for Beltrán. There were a few voters who wrote that they declined to vote for him this year but would think about it again next year. If he can get around 50% of the vote, I’ll estimate he has a chance of being elected later. If he ends up getting closer to A-Rod, we’ll say 40s, he’s probably here for a long 10 years.
Besides seeing whether Rolen enters or not, this is the scenario that will hold my attention the most on Tuesday night.
4. Helton in motion
But what if Rolen isn’t the only player with a chance?
Last year Helton won 52% of the vote to Rolen’s 63.2%, but Helton has made significant gains. He is already up 32 votes and has actually passed Rolen, sitting at 79.8%. It would be an incredible leap forward, but it really does seem like the electorate as a whole has warmed strongly to Helton’s candidacy.
His case is a bit polarizing, but not for the sake of scandal. He has played his entire career with Coors Field as his home..
If there is a big upset on Tuesday night, it will be Helton who becomes a Hall of Famer.
5. Watch for earnings
Let’s keep an eye out for the following players apart from those mentioned above:
- Billy Wagner: After jumping nearly 30 points in two years to 46.4 for the 2021 vote, Wagner made more modest gains to 51% last year. Still, polls show he won 29 votes this voting cycle. It’s its eighth year and a great chance, with all the ballots from the last voting cycle, to jump into realistic territory.
- Gary Sheffield: After a huge two-year jump to 40.6 in the 2021 vote, Sheffield has stagnated again at exactly 40.6%. It’s his ninth year on the ballot and he needs a big jump to have an even shot from a distance next year. Polls show 26 votes won so far, so maybe he’s on the right track, although realistically the lack of winnings doomed him last year.
- Andrew Jones: Little more than a polling afterthought in his first two years, Jones hit 19.4% in 2020, 33.9% in 2021 and 41.1% last year. Now on his sixth ballot, the tracker wins him 24 more votes. Looks like it will be over 50% or maybe even 55%? If so, he’s well on his way to eventual consecration.
- Bobby Abreu: He won just 8.6% of the vote last year but has won 12 votes so far in the polls. This is his fourth try.
- Andy Pettitte: In his fourth round of voting last year, Pettitte received 10.7% of the vote and won 13 votes this time around.
- jimmy rollin: He got 9.4% of the vote on his debut last year and won five votes this time.
- Marc Bührle: He stayed above the threshold in each of his first two tries (5.8% last year) and obtained nine votes.
Wagner and Jones would be the big ones to watch while Buehrle and Rollins may barely stay alive.
6. Who falls?
- Jeff Kent: It is his swan song; its 10th and final year. Even with a decent increase in polling data over the past year, it’s highly unlikely to even reach 60%. I detailed that his case will probably come out much better in committee and that is a blessing in disguise for him.
- Torii Hunter: With just 5.3% last year on his first try, Hunter barely stayed alive. His public earnings are modest enough to believe there’s a chance he’ll fall below 5%.
- Francois Rodriguez: This is the first year for K-Rod and it looks like he will survive, but it will probably be very close. The polls show him around nine percent, but as the closest I guess he loses some before the vote is revealed.
- Omar Vizquel: He has a good chance of surviving. He votes right with K-Rod, but Vizquel’s remaining voters are nearly all bereft. He gained nearly 14% last year between ballot tracking and actual voting results. He’s still dead in the water when it comes to his chances of making the Hall, however, here on his sixth try.
- None of the remaining debutants on the ballot have yet secured a public vote. Those are Bronson Arroyo, matt cain, R. A. Dickey, Jacoby Elsbury, Andre Ethier, JJ Hardy, John Lackey, mike napoli, Johnny Peralta, Houston Street, jered weaver and Jayson Werth. Even if a few of them get a vote or two, they are all united.
Of those facing the 5% threshold, I predict Hunter falls while K-Rod and Vizquel survive.
The only other person on the ballot that I haven’t mentioned yet is Manny Ramirez. He most likely remains in no man’s land with Vizquel, albeit for different reasons. He won 28.9% of the vote last year and his polls show stagnation.
, I predicted that this class would be McGriff and Rolen. I nailed the committee vote with McGriff going in alone, so let’s do it two for two by getting the correct BBWAA as well. Rolen walks in and that’s it for this vote.